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My Portfolio: 23Q4

This issue of My Portfolio is a summary of my financial situation for the 2023 Q4. The other posts (previous quarters) can be found at links at the bottom of the webpage, under Continue Reading. Recap covers the main point of the previous quarter. Portfolio/ Investments cover my current portfolio in more depth. After, is a summary and perspective of the current environment. If there is anything you want to know feel free to ask in the comments.


Recap

While inflation deteriorates the dollar and the wealth gap fans the flames of dissatisfaction among the people, the recession is present. Due to proxy wars, bad economics, and a rising “counter-power”, we’ll experience all the -flation except the Deflation. US banking giants report lower profits, while stockpiling billions in rainy day funds to prepare for soured loans. Earlier this year it was reported that people were going to pivot away from stocks and the shift could result in a $750 billion sell-off in equities this year, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. The pivot would be towards less risky and higher yielding bonds. High yields send investors toward bonds that are paying much more than in the past, which pulls dollars away from stocks and undercuts their prices. But then, recent lackluster Treasury auctions have raised concerns about demand, and Goldman Sachs noted that this reflects worries about US fiscal policy, where a ballooning deficit has forced the Treasury to issue substantially more bonds. While the market has experienced historic declines, households have stepped up as buyers and now own 9% of outstanding US Treasury bonds, up from 2% at the start of 2022. Due to the consequences of the pivot, stocks that pay high dividends with relatively steady businesses have/will see particular pain because their investors are more likely to switch between stocks and bonds. That puts a harsh spotlight on utility companies, and other equities favored by foreign investors and corporations.


There's an economic war taking place in which agreements are being made to lessen countries' reliance on USD, and American influence. BRICS members China, Brazil, and India dumped a total of $18.5 billion worth of U.S. treasuries in a single month. The development adds pressure on the U.S. dollar, as a handful of countries are cutting ties with American government bonds. Central banks increased their demand to replace dollars with gold. America's desire to police the world through finance has upset powerful countries, which are often ignored up to this point due to them not being in the western establishment (G7). Poor/ deteriorating relationships have led to a string of events that has resulted in our current crises. "Experts" go on media platforms and say de-dollarization is far off and (to some) impractical due to no replacement being available to handle the needs of the global financial system. The reasons broke down to: there's a limited supply of yuan outside of China, the dollar still dominates cross-border transactions, China's frail economy and capital controls could limit use of the yuan, China's financial system needs the dollar, and the US could address dollar shortages in emerging markets. Those who say that ignore the obvious, China is not alone. China has BRICS and therefore has The New Development Bank (NDB), Saudi Arabia & UAE oil, and Russia & Africa’s raw materials. The NDB has a 3-year de-dollarization initiative that will lead to BRICS settling trade in local currencies, and not the US dollar, to boost the usage of local currencies and strengthen the native economy of BRICS nations.


It was evident this year, BRICS is on a quest for multipolarity and disarming the USD. First, by retiring the petrodollar. Oil-rich nations are in the Middle East, South America, and Africa. New acquisitions in the oil sector could help the BRICS alliance gain further control of the markets. BRICS-10 accounts for around 44% of global oil production and consumption, 36% of gas production and consumption, 70% of steel production and 65% of steel consumption, 44% of fertilizer production and 46% of fertilizer consumption, 57% of food production and consumption, and 48% of automobile production. Second, BRICS’s quest for multipolarity is supported by trade; China is now the world's second largest economy, largest trading nation, and trade partner to 120 countries (62% of nations). China remains the world’s single largest official source of development finance and continues to out-fund any single Group of Seven (G7) developed economy as well as multilateral lenders, the researchers say, nearly 80% of China’s lending portfolio in the developing world is currently supporting countries in financial distress. China now uses its position/standing to enact resource nationalism to combat the US sanctions and such. Lastly, BRICS quest for multipolarity is seen through international relationships. 25 countries were rumored to have requested to join or interested in BRICS, five were approved and accepted, once again many being oil rich nations or those crippled by the US sanctions.


The overall conclusion reached, expect our government to drain as much money as possible from you in order to float its currency, but don't see that being successful until oil/ energy costs are placed under control. Major asset managers like JPMorgan, Brookfield, & Blackrock are relying heavily on cash-rich investors in the Middle East and Asia to fuel their growth. About 40 percent of the capital the firm (BAM) has raised in the past year comes from those two regions and U.S. clients are becoming a smaller part of the business. Meaning, Big Money is fleeing US stocks. Not only is it foreign nations cutting ties, and now I think it's also the wealthy finding a more exclusive scheme. Ever since stocks got "democratized" and dumb money has been flooding the market, the market whales get weaker and weaker against the currents. So, the government jacks the interest rates, offering a safe haven in treasuries, but it's not exclusive enough for the wealthy. The market whales simply create new lakes through shadow banking, credit, and real estate. Nonbanks have expanded quickly and provide some 60 percent of all consumer and business credit.


Unfortunately, we have a government that rather tax its citizens into poverty to line the pockets of politicians, donors, lobbyists, staffers, corporations, institutions, executives, and the already wealthy elite. Right now, we do not have free markets. Today and for quite some time, we have been enslaved to monopolies strengthened by crony capitalism, people are forced to make decisions based on factors not of their control. Resources in the hands of the working class is the only hedge the country has against other world powers. I believe a concept of soft landing is disingenuous and subjective, ignoring the working and poor class, who are struggling to survive at current prices. Therefore, the landing may be soft for the folks at the top, but for the folks that make up much of the foundation will be crushed and the folks in the upper middle will be compressed. The solution for the People is simple: invest directly in the individual, allowing them to stimulate the economy in a way that’s sustainable, ethical, and financially reasonable. Whether that looks like direct deposits, tax refunds, fee suspension/ cancellations, rebates, or grants, the best way to benefit the real economy (& America's international standing) is to aid/invest directly into the people, while simultaneously keeping corporate greed in check. We need politicians and government to increase entitlements and provide guarantees of housing/ shelter, food/nutrition, childcare/ education, and transportation. The government should treat its citizens like it treats Wall Street executives and celebrities.


Portfolio/ Investments

Buy, Sell, Watch

Looking back, maybe I could've taken the risk and added to more positions last quarter (even though I already added too much). The swing trades probably wouldn't have worked, but dollar cost averaging could've been beneficial. But like most of the world, I’m needing the highest yield out, which is why I’m trying to be more intentional with adding to any position.


23Q3: I sold my position in NEE, GRWS, DHLGY, & RA; sold shares in RTX, BYFC, & KO and added USDC, TGT, TMUS, DG, LEMB, TOLZ, UL, AXP, ARCC, AAPL, MSFT, KBWD, IBN, STWD, MRK, ACI, VICI, GOLD, BAM, BYFC, DHT, KBR, JPM, HKXCY, XLU, CMCSA, & ALLY. Stocks on my watchlist: ALLY, BAM, BN, LEMB, VZ, STWD, DTEGY, GOLD, IBN, SCCO, AFL, AXP, USB, HKXCY, TMUS, & JPM


23Q4: I exited PNGAY, sold shares in EADSY, UBER, & BYFC and added USDC, KO, AGM, SCCO, VZ, TGT, TMUS, DG, GM, IBN, KBR, EMLC, UBS, DIS, AXP, MRK, BAM, HKXCY, CMCSA, & ALLY. Stocks on my watchlist: ALLY, BAM, LEMB, VZ, STWD, DTEGY, GOLD, IBN, SCCO, AFL, AXP, USB, HKXCY, CMCSA, TMUS, & JPM.


Top 10 Allstars

This section discusses/reports on the top holdings of the portfolio. I added to the position in 6/10 stocks, and 5/10 remain on my watchlist. The reduction of ADRs (previously mentioned) has forced me to start an exit from Airbus (EADSY). Copper is still performing well (+40.94% ytd). Comcast (CMCSA) which is proving to be one of the best telecom and media conglomerate in the country, has made its debut on the list. AmEx (AXP) went from last to second, the stock continues to do well consistently. Verizon (VZ) may be beginning its turnaround, and my favorite digital bank ALLY has risen to top 3. [TOTAL: $6,204.29]


23Q3: SCCO, TOLZ, MRK, EADSY, UL, ALLY, AFL, OHI, VZ, & AXP.


23Q4: SCCO, AXP, ALLY, TOLZ, MRK, VZ, UL, AFL, OHI & CMCSA.


Small Bets

This list is composed of my smallest positions. Sold more of my position in BYFC, on top of the fact that they had an 8:1 reverse split. It may be time to finally exit the stock (along with PNGAY & F) and reallocate the funds to somewhere else.


23Q3 Tickers: RTX, HKXCY, & BYFC


23Q4 Tickers: BYFC, RTX, & TMUS


Top Performers

Agriculture, finance, and copper are dominating. AFL, VICI, & MRK are right behind them. All 6 stocks have been on the list before


23Q3 Tickers: AGM, AFL, & VICI


23Q4 Tickers: AGM, AXP, & SCCO


Worst Performers

Telecom bets are still performing poorly (with the exception of CMCSA) but VZ may be turning around. GOLD has risen but not enough to cancel out the losses. DIS continues to remain on the list, with that being said, the company restored dividend payments which will hopefully incentive reinvestment.


23Q3 Tickers: HOOD, VZ, GOLD, T, & DIS.


23Q4 Tickers: HOOD, VZ, T, DIS, & GOLD.


Dividend Payout

Top Dividend Payers this quarter were STWD, SCCO, & CGW. This Quarter's dividend total: $167.65, Previous Quarter: $146.96. This quarter's results (+14.08%). Oct. $33.87, Nov. $60.71, & Dec. $73.07, compared to the previous year, -8.31%, +32.61%, +10.23%, respectively. Total of 210 payments made. This year Sept. & Oct. are the months unable to surpass previous year payouts, breaking this year’s trend of staying above $40; most payouts were between $40-$60, with 5/12 being above $60, which shows improvement compared to 2K21 results. Below, are line charts featuring the past 3 yrs. of dividend payments. Chart 1 is an overlay chart displaying each payment by month, Chart 2 is a continuous read of payments beginning 2K21.


W.E.S. Rose & Shield

At the current time, WES:RS has 9 holdings. Estimated current market value (CMV) is $9,***.**. WES:RT market price is $463.12. Portfolio up +6.30% (+$550.98) since Q3 and +29.54% (+$2,***.**) for the year. Less of the value is liquid (30.88% cash) expecting more investment in treasuries & cash holding to ensure distribution payments to ticket holders, to counter uncertainty in markets, and overvalued stock prices. The dividend also decreased 13.96% (from 3.94% to 3.39%), but Annual Income increased 16.84% (from $253.23 to $295.88). Also considering expanding the portfolio and provide a “counter-anchor”. The counter-anchor will include/hold assets that will negatively impact the selling price of the WES:RT, which increase 26.88% since the end of Q1.

Multipolarity: Classic Underdog Story

We've made it to the last note/ report of the year. With everything going on, and all the changes happening, I can't help but wonder where do I stand in all this? Living as a Black minority in a developed nation in itself is The Underdog Story that has transcended generations, continents, and languages. Since birth I've seen the two worlds, the beauty and grotesque. A constant confusion from the blatant inconsistencies of society. We're told we're all the same with human rights, then treated the opposite. I've witnessed the discrimination and exploitation of my people particularly through finance and law, not only directly, but also through testimonials and historical account. So, when I read the news or hear about BRICS, oil prices, currency, inflation, or financial instability I see people exploited, abused, and forced to give to those that already have excess. A feeling of being pushed into survival mode in a world of abundance.


Don’t Underestimate the Cast

Many of the events since “22Q4: Inflation, Recession, Stagflation!!! Oh My!!!” has played out as planned or expected. Some being: Refilling the SPR around $70 (average of $74.23 a barrel in Feb.), Zelensky being right about price caps in Russian oil being a weak position, Russia avoiding price caps on their oil by selling to their allies (mainly India, China, & Turkey), asset managers and investment companies relying heavily on cash-rich investors in the Middle East and Asia to fuel their growth, and JP Morgan has gotten even larger, and BRICS-10 (& others) mission to liberate the global south and change the status que through de-dollarization, resource nationalism, and global development finance.


Granted, the US has manipulated the "free market" by sanctioning and sabotaging Russia's (Iran & Iraq) oil, gas & energy, while seizing/ buying oil from places like Venezuela, and relying on corporate actors like Chevron & W. Buffett to become the world's top exporter of LNG. The US may be sanctioning Russia, but still mindfully contradicts itself when it allows financial institutions to become dependent on foreign capital, while abandoning the American customer in a financial ecosystem dominated by nonbank lenders. In the last five years, nonbanks originated about 60% of US home loans, which concerns me in terms of housing stability.


What wasn't as expected was the responses to further weaponization of the dollar. Treasury Dept. doubling down on sanctions & economic coercion is essentially the fuel for De-dollarization and multipolarity across the globe. Russia’s sovereign assets in Western jurisdictions will remain immobilized until Russia pays for the damage it caused to Ukraine, which according to the World Bank to date, already exceeds $400 billion dollars. In response, Russia has cut oil exports to Western nations, classified its oil production and export data; but most importantly, the US sanctions have helped BRICS members India and Russia to settle oil deals for cheaper in local currencies. Russia increased its crude oil exports to India by 2,200% since the sanctions were pressed by the US. In addition, the development made India save a staggering $7 billion in foreign exchange by ditching the US dollar. Therefore, BRICS members are making the most out of the US sanctions by buying oil at discounted prices. The new BRICS member Saudi Arabia is buying cheap oil from Russia and laundering it to the European markets (which the same goes for India). As expected, the BRICS alliance is doing everything possible to keep the US dollar away from all international transactions.


De-dollarization is inevitable, predestined by greed. BRICS-10 hold top producers & manufacturers, oil, metals, & labor reserves; plus, has attracted global elites. The municipals business is effective the business of banks helping local and state governments finance infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, and schools; and while banks like Citi are exiting the sector (despite Biden's infrastructure bill), JP Morgan is expected to bring in inflows of $20 billion-$25 billion in index-eligible government securities within the next 2 years, with the inclusion of India, in Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM). So essentially, the global south is rising and demanding fairness, and will create multipolarity in the process. American financial institutions on their never-ending quest for more capital and larger margins, will sell out the working class of any & every nation to do so, with our elected leaders on payroll.


Of The Litter Not The Pack

Being a part of an oppressed & exploited minority in a developed nation, I'm able to see myself, my people, my struggles, and my history in others. The global south is full of Black & brown people working to provide for their families and close communities, and even thus less melaninated, are working unbelievable jobs to earn a living. Most of us see the unfair distribution of prosperity thru resources. So, when I say, "of the litter, not the pack" I mean my country is doing the same injustices it did to my people (and so many others) to entire nations abroad, and I can't not understand the retaliation. Through social media, we see millions have the same opinion.

Unfortunately, I don't see the agenda of the Powers-that-Be shifting. It appears they're determined to overtly rig elections, fund war & death, and enslave their citizens to debt and labor. In their future, we own nothing, and we have nothing and we're happy with it; that is why homes are unaffordable, farmland is being privatized (ugh...Bill Gates), and cash is getting digitized. Our government tell us to fear "dictators" doing to their citizens what our government has done to us or planning to do abroad.

Conclusion

Long story short, bunker down and prepare for institutions to ramp up extortion (I mean taxes). Individual taxpayers, businesses and corporations collectively owed $688 billion in unpaid taxes for the returns due 2022. The Department of Justice is shelling out more than $6 billion to private companies to manage its asset forfeiture investigations, raising alarm from one nonprofit law firm that accuses police of "treating ordinary Americans like ATMs" and seizing their cash. Asset forfeiture is the process through which the government seizes money or other property that is believed to be linked to a crime. Most federal forfeitures are civil, meaning the government can keep the seized property without ever charging the owner with a crime. Unfortunately, the corruption of our government will allow sanction and seizure of anyone that resist the status quo, just look at the pro-Israel/ anti-protest bills introduced in Congress. So in the coming year (& beyond), fight back, resist, and dismantle this unjust system and any & all systems upholding corruption, greed, war, & disease.


It’s crazy that I have to say this but: none of this is investing advice and you should do your own research and never take the word of someone else without doing so. All investing involves risk, and only you can decide what to risk and is worth risking for. And you look stupid trying to sue someone because you followed blindly.


23Q4 Report
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Download PDF • 2.77MB

Works Cited

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/indias-inclusion-in-global-bond-index-unlikely-to-significantly-impact-benchmark-yields-in-2024-11949081.html 


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Boosts-Fuel-Shipments-After-Pledge-to-Deepen-Export-Cuts.html


https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-buys-2-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2023-12-19/


https://www.newsweek.com/china-rare-earth-metals-export-control-restrictions-1842152


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-buyers-households-equities-supply-demand-yields-bond-us-debt-2023-10


https://watcher.guru/news/brics-russia-oil-exports-to-india-rise-2200-saves-them-7-billion


https://watcher.guru/news/brics-to-completely-ditch-the-us-dollar-in-3-years


https://watcher.guru/news/brics-dumps-another-17-billion-in-u-s-treasuries-in-a-month#google_vignette


https://watcher.guru/news/brics-20-new-countries-apply-to-join-alliance-in-2024#google_vignette


https://defence-blog.com/saudi-arabia-in-talks-with-south-korea-for-air-defense-system-buy/


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-owe-688-billion-in-unpaid-taxes-that-makes-audits-of-super-rich-more-urgent-irs-says-cc6e1c94


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-20-richest-countries-gdp-181201024.html


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67236251


https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2023/10/poverty-rate-california/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=discover&utm_campaign=CCwqGQgwKhAIACoHCAowm72CCzCfvP8CMPzc4wEwy73_AQ&utm_content=bullets


https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/47ap71e2s


https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/g7-launches-600bn-trans-african-railway-to-counter-chinas-belt-and-road/


https://finance.yahoo.com/video/citigroup-close-municipal-bonds-unit-151432518.html


https://www.barrons.com/news/us-to-lower-barriers-on-imposing-too-big-to-fail-label-on-firms-9940b456


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/politics/us-nato-to-suspend-participation-in-landmark-cold-war-arms-treaty/amp-11699374398604.html


https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/china-saudi-arabia-central-banks-sign-local-currency-swap-agreement-2023-11-20/


https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-lobito-corridor-washingtons-answer-to-belt-and-road-in-africa/


https://www.businessinsider.com/best-economy-us-houston-dallas-nashville-miami-cities-moving-businesses-2023-11


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/china-yuan-vs-dollar-dedollarization-challenges-trade-reserve-currency-2023-12


https://watcher.guru/news/brics-2-billion-copper-trade-paid-chinese-yuan-not-us-dollar#google_vignette


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabias-Plan-to-Artificially-Boost-Oil-Demand.html


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-record-us-production-opec-market-share-energy-2023-12


https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/09/joint-statement-from-the-united-states-and-the-european-union-on-support-for-angola-zambia-and-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congos-commitment-to-further-develop-the-lobito-corridor-and-the/


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-bond-crash-janet-yellen-calm-markets-yields-fed-rates-2023-10


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-buyers-households-equities-supply-demand-yields-bond-us-debt-2023-10


https://watcher.guru/news/brics-to-completely-ditch-the-us-dollar-in-3-years


Africa’s Exports Could Soar Close to $1 Trillion Under Trade Deal https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-10-12/supply-chain-latest-outlook-for-africa-s-exports-and-trade


https://watcher.guru/news/brics-dumps-another-17-billion-in-u-s-treasuries-in-a-month#google_vignette


Latino, Black US Homebuyers Pay Higher Mortgage Fees to Nonbank Lenders  https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-nonbank-lender-mortgage-loan-borrower-fee/?cmpid==socialflow-twitter-economics


https://www.foxnews.com/us/doj-eyeing-americans-like-atms-spending-6-billion-aid-civil-asset-forfeitures-watchdog-says


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-owe-688-billion-in-unpaid-taxes-that-makes-audits-of-super-rich-more-urgent-irs-says-cc6e1c94



 

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